Study On Grey Forecasting Of The Development Of HanDan Safety Situation

Along with the rapid development of economy and social reform in China, theurbanization all over the country has been pushed to a new stage, and the safety issues ofindustrial productionin cities have become a key problem of social concern. The trendforecast of industrial safety in urban areas can be effectively applied to safety management,analysis of existing problems, and decision making in promoting production safety in aneffort to substantially reduce production accidents, thus is very important in urban safetymanagement and control.The urgency and great importance of the urban production safety forcast are elaboratedin this article firstly. Then, the normal accident theory and the methods in prediction ofaccidents at home and broad are overiewed. We compared the differences between thedifferent methods and chose Grey as the best theory in our study. For the characteristics of theurban production safety accidents, selects the grey forecasting is the best method to study now.The statistical analysis of the production safety accident data in Handan were carried on tostudy the accident safety trends. Considering the advantage of Grey in study of the greysystem- with both knwon and unknwon information, we chose GM(1,1) as the fundamentalmodel. Also, we made amends for it according the acctual conditions, and then we establishedour study model. Basing on this model and the historical data of production accidents inHandan, we predicted the some numbers in the accidents in 2009, such as total number ofdeaths. The prediction numbers is coincide with the real numbers and with high precision,which indicate that, this model is suitable to the trend forecast of industrial safety in urbanareas. And the grey is is one feasible forecasting to predict the development of the safetysituation in the city of great practical significance.