Gray Theory In Applied Research, The Bursting Of The Non-coal Mines In The Assessment And Accident Prediction

Now blasting engineering is the main way to exploit mine in non-coal mine in our country, with the increasing need of mine, the operations of blasting have become increasingly frequent, however the blasting accident is also in frequency. But the research on this issue is underway, Consequently, establishing a mathematic prediction model of accident prediction adapting to non-coal mine blasting in our country is the main aim of this paper.First, this paper analysis several typical prediction theory and give the difference, linking to the characteristic of non-coal mine blasting, the method of Grey system theory is applied; In macro field, thinking about the sample of non-coal mine explosion accidents are small and random, this paper take the GM(1,1) to build the model of non-coal mine explosion accidents, and adopts the DPS software for processing of calculation and precision. And put the typical accident data in Yunnan province into the model, verified the model can be used in actual projects.Secondly, in the micro field, the author got the five main factors which affect the non-coal mine explosion accidents, throuth analysis the accident. Then established the micro accident prediction model and the formula for calculation of weight by gray relational thoery, after that the prioritize of the influencing factors can be determined. Also established the inspection table and forecasting results cross-references for blasting accident forecast in non-coal mine. With the typical accidents and the condition of Baideng phosphorus mine used in the model, the micro prediction model was verified to be practical.The research on blasting accident prediction model of non-coal mine blasting in this paper introduced the grey system theory into non-coal mine blasting accident forecast field,which is not only significant to actual using but also to the upcoming work of safety assessment of blasting.