Study On Carbon Emission Reduction Potential In Beijing From The Perspective Of Industrial Structure

With the rapid development of economy in Beijing, and the rise of carbon emissions under the carbon based energy consumption, the way to control carbon emissions and maintain the current economic development has become an urgent task under the circumstance of global warming. The goal of this paper is to estimate the consequences resulted from carbon emission reduction capability and potential, by assuming that the future industrial structures of Beijing in 2020 and 2030. In addition, by analyzing the carbon emissions in certain industries, this paper also tracks the sources that cause carbon emissions, and proposes several recommendations on the development of the industries.Based on the goal of Beijing industrial structure adjustment, this paper uses scenario analysis method to establish a benchmark scenario and low-carbon scenario in the development prospect of Beijing. This paper assumes that Beijing is seeking to maintain a 7% economic growth from 2016 to 2030, and therefore the industrial structure of Beijing in 2030 will come with two values, which are(0.16%:18.18%:81.67%) and(0.11%:13.98%:85.90%) respectively. Under such industrial structure, this paper concludes that when the rate of agricultural growth is negative 7 percent per year, the growth of third industry will rise 0.7 percent per year in Scenario 1. And when the rate of agricultural growth is negative 10 percent per year, the growth of third industry will rise 1 percent per year in Scenario 2.Due to differences in carbon emission intensity and transforming tendency in different industries, this paper uses different settings in testing the intensity of carbon emissions in three industries.Given the current carbon emissions in three industries in Beijing, this paper forecasts the carbon emissions of each industry in 2020 and 2030, and compares the different trends of carbon emissions to the situations under the benchmark scenarios and low carbon scenarios. This paper estimates the carbon emission reduction capability under different scenarios of adjustment in industrial structure. Under the baseline scenario, the total carbon emissions in Beijing will reach 6130.21 million tons and 7042.07 million tons in 2020 and 2030 respectively. In Scenario 1, there will have 188.03 tons and 6 34.5 tons of emission reduction in 2020 and 2030 compared to the baseline scenario. In the low carbon scenario 2, the figures will be 980.61 tons and 2240.48 tons compared to the baseline scenario. In the low carbon Scenario 3, the figures will be 1004.97 tons and 2309.81 tons compared to the baseline scenario.At last, this paper applies certain model in analyzing the carbon emissions in specific industry, and draws some recommendations to reduce carbon emission. The first recommendation is to adjust the industrial structures among these three industries. Under the situation where the total economic gross is growing, there should be an adjustment and an optimization in the industrial structure, as well as an acceleration of the industrial adjustment from the first and the second industry to the third industry.The second recommendation is to adjust the structure inside the industry. Industrial structure adjustment includes the transformation from heavy industry to light industry and service industry inside the industry, and the transition from traditional service industry to the emerging service industry.The last recommendation is to improve the structure of energy and increase the efficiency of energy use. The intensity of carbon emission is an important factor that affects the environment of Beijing. The intensity of energy can be reduced by advancing the technology and improving energy efficiency, and therefore reducing the intensity of carbon emission to a certain extent.