Research On The Impact Of Industrial Structure Upgrading On Carbon Emissions In The Context Of "Double Carbon"

As an important economy in the world,China proposes to achieve "carbon peak" by 2030 and "carbon neutrality" by 2060.At the same time,China’s industrial structure is also constantly changing,and the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure has become an effective way to control carbon emissions.Studying the mechanism and effect of China’s industrial structure upgrading on carbon emissions enriches the "double carbon" theory and provides theoretical support for the upgrading of industrial structure in carbon emissions governance.Compared with the existing literature,the marginal contributions of this paper are as follows: First,the existing literature mostly focuses on the whole country or specific provinces,ignoring the industrial structure process and carbon emission status of the three regions in the east,west and east;Second,the existing literature does not consider the spatial correlation between industrial structure upgrading and carbon emissions;Thirdly,most of the studies focus on the impact of industrial structure upgrading on carbon emissions,and few of them involve the mechanism of industrial structure upgrading on carbon emissions.With the upgrading of industrial structure as the core independent variable,carbon emissions as the dependent variable,and industrial intelligence and energy consumption as the intermediary variable,this paper empirically tests the mechanism and effect of the upgrading of industrial structure on carbon emissions by constructing a panel econometric model of 30 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions(excluding Tibet,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)in China from 2006 to 2019,using the research methods of benchmark regression,spatial econometric regression and intermediary effect regression.The results show that the rationalization of industrial structure has significantly promoted carbon emissions.The carbon emissions increase by 0.5154% for every 1% increase in the rationalization of industrial structure,and the quadratic coefficient is negative.There is an "inverted U-shaped" relationship between the two.The rationalization level is currently on the left side of the inflection point;The upgrading of industrial structure has significantly inhibited carbon emissions.Every 1% increase in the upgrading of industrial structure will reduce carbon emissions by 0.1922%,and the secondary coefficient is negative.There is an "inverted U-shaped" relationship between the two.The upgrading level is currently on the right side of the inflection point;When spatial factors are added,the elasticity coefficient and inflection point of the rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure affecting carbon emissions are advanced,which shows that the realization of regional joint control and governance can effectively promote the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure and reduce carbon emissions.In the heterogeneity analysis,the rationalization of industrial structure has significantly promoted carbon emissions,and the more developed the region is,the smaller the degree of promotion is;The upgrading of industrial structure has shown a restraining effect on carbon emissions in the eastern and central regions,and a promoting effect in the western regions.There is heterogeneity between regions.In the mechanism analysis,the irrational industrial structure hinders the development of industrial intelligence,increases energy consumption and promotes carbon emissions;The upgrading of industrial structure is conducive to the development of industrial intelligence,reducing energy consumption and curbing carbon emissions.In the spatial econometric analysis,the rationalization of industrial structure promotes local and neighboring carbon emissions,and plays a negative spatial spillover effect;The upgrading of industrial structure inhibits local and neighboring carbon emissions and has a positive spatial spillover effect.Based on this,all regions should continue to promote the process of upgrading the industrial structure,achieve the rational allocation of factor resources,jointly build a regional joint control and governance system for environmental protection,and help achieve the "double carbon" goal.Figure [12] Table [26] Reference [90]...