Study On The Evolution Of Complex Water System And System Dynamics Model In Dawen River Basin

Dawen River is the tributary of the Yellow River, originated in Laiwu City,flows through Laiwu, Tai'an.Dawen River Basin Water Resources has many problems such as uneven distribution, wet and withered and so on. Because of the higher intensity exploitation of groundwater, many ecological and environmental problems were caused such as ground subsidence, housing spots crack, and other adverse consequences of environmental degradation.Recent years, industrial and mining wastewater by sewage, agricultural pollution, sewage discharge and other sources of pollution, increas water pollution tributary. With the rapid social and economic development of Tai'an and Laiwu City, water resources demand is increasing. Water shortages and water pollution has seriously restricted the social and economic development and people's improved quality of life. Therefore, studying the interaction of Dawen River Basin water resources, ecological environment and socio-economic sub-system to to reveal the role of complex water system rules, has important practical significance for water resources, ecological environment and harmonious development of socio-economic sub-system .First, variety of mathematical methods are applied to anylyze water resources, socio-economic and ecological environment subsystem. The natural runoff, groundwater changes water subsystem were analyzed to reveal the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation, the natural runoff trends and abrupt changes of dynamic characteristics and the groundwater level; in the socio-economic sub-System, mainly using information entropy and gray relational analysis method to anylyze the structure and its driving force; in the environment subsystem , the contamination of Dawen River were evaluated, the blind exploitation using of groundwater, triggered a series of of the geological environment.Secondly, based on the research of the subsystem respectively, the interaction was also analyzed.A model of the economic loss of water was establishment , using the recover- cost method , the economic losses caused by water pollution were calculated.Finally, According to water resources, environment and population, social and economic development status of Tai'an City, using Vensim software, a dynamics system model was established.Appling the system model, different development model were simulated, simulation results are analyzed and presented in the future utilization of water resources problems. Under the program through a variety of water resources sustainable utilization of the comparative analysis shows that, to achieve the sustainable use of water resources, water conservation and pollution control needs to invest greater efforts, and proposed sustainable development of complex water system reasonable Recommendations.