Evaluation Of The Regional Water Resoure Carrying Capacity

Although the water resource total quantity is rich in our country, the water resources per capita is less than 1/4 of the world average level. In addition, with the fast social economy development and the people living standards enhancement, the water resources supply and demand contradictory intensified increasingly. Some areas'water resources critical shortage has become hinders of their economical and social development bottleneck. Therefore, the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity which is carried out systematically has the important theory value and the practical significance.Through the research of the water resources carrying capacity assessment method, the water resources carrying capacity evaluating indicator system has been established. And taking the Dali city as an example, the water resources carrying capacity has carried on the appraisal to it in the different years and under the different plan development program, proposed the key measures of enhancing Dali water resources carrying capacity. When it works out the urban development plan for Dali city, it provides technology and method basis from the water resources carrying capacity appraisal aspect.The research has mainly used the literature analytic method, the model analytic method and the case analytic method. In the analysis massive literature's foundation,14 evaluating indicators were selected from the water resources condition, the utilization of water resources development, the water resources management condition, the economic society development condition. The Dali water resources carrying capacity evaluating indicator system has been established. In 2006,2010,2015,2020 and so on 4 benchmark years of Dali and under A (low speed), B (high speed) two kinds of development program, the industry, the agriculture, the life, the ecology water demand has carried on the analysis predict. Then according to the multi-level fuzzy judgment methods,the water resources carrying capacity were carried on the appraisal to Dali in 2006,2010,2015,2020 and under the A, B two development programs.The results show that:in 2006 the water resources of Dali city are at the supply and demand non-equilibrium state and the water resources supply capacity is smaller than the demand. The water resources carrying capacity fuzzy quality synthetic evaluation value is 0.418 and the water resources carrying capacity is low. Under A development program scene of the Dali city in 2010,2015,2020, the water resources carrying capacity fuzzy quality synthetic evaluation value respectively is 0.442,0.472,0.491, and the water resources carrying capacity will increase gradually in 2006 foundation. In the B development program scene in 2010,2015,2020, the water resources carrying capacity fuzzy quality synthetic evaluation value respectively is 0.437,0.456,0.471, and it also has the certain extent enhancement., but the increases scope hasn't the A development program to be big. Therefore it believes that Dali will implement the B development program to have the tremendous pressure to the water resources supplies. When implements the A development program, it will be advantageous to the whole city water resources sustainable use and the Dali city long-term economic and social sustainable development.