Study Of The Impact Of Variable Message Sign's Information On Drivers' Route Choice Under Incident Conditions

With the rapid development of national economy, the traffic flow and the number of automobile in China has constantly increased, which results in the growing number of traffic congestion and traffic incidents, also a lot of waste of resources, seriously affecting people's work and life. Traffic information is the key factor of affecting the distribution of traffic flow in urban road network. As one of the most important way to distribute traffic routing information in Advanced Travelers Information System(ATIS), Variable Message Sign(VMS) guides drivers'route choice effectively to solve most traffic problems. It is being widespread concerned and playing an important role because of its high efficiency, convenient, widely used and high benefit. But now in China, VMS information system is in primary stage. The technology is not mature enough, and the effectiveness does not reach the maximum, which limits its relief effect. Although the technology has been mature abroad, we can't make use of it directly for different national conditions. Therefore, it is imperative to study the impact of VMS on drivers'route choice behaviour. It definitely involves the analysis of related influencing factors of drivers'route choice. This paper proposes various of influence factors, then categorize, analyze as focal point with pertinence. This study is helpful to make and optimize VMS guiding information policy to meet our traffic situation, to improve travel system and guide drivers'route choice behavior, strengthen the rational distribution of road network traffic flow, relief traffic congestion, avoid secondary accidents and reducing the unnecessary economic loss, it is also helpful to the overall popularization of VMS, make feasible suggestions to related departments, and promote the improvement and maturation of VMS system.This paper mainly studies the impact of VMS traffic guidance informtion on drivers' route choice under the two conditions of traffic congestion and traffic accident. First, summarize the current development situation at home and abroad, find the existing problems, then elaborate on the Variable Message Sign(VMS); analyze route choice behavior mechanism under guidance information, bring up corresponding facors as possible. After that, make field investigation on the drivers'route choice by means of SP survey questionnaire, analyze data and primarily analyze the related factors based on the means of questionnaire; and then compare the two regression models of Probit and Logisitic with each other, pick over the Logistic model, and based on this model step sizing independent variable with SPSS software, find out the factor impact on drivers'route choice behavior with higher effect weight. All factors impact on drivers'route choice in different degrees, finally build the drivers's Logistic route choice probability model. Meanwhile, we propose feasible suggestions according to the conclusion and advices by people who accept the survey. The paper shows there are four most important factors, they are:driving years, drivers'attention-degree on VMS, VMS accuracy, VMS punctuality. The degree of familiarity to road network of driver and the type of variable message signs, drivers'delay tolerance degree are also playing the important roles in travelers'route changing.