Study On The Coupling Models For Safety Risk Of Air Traffic Control

As China's modernization process accelerates, Air traffic control (ATC) industry of our civil aviation has entered a sustained and rapid development track. As an important subsystem of Civil Aviation system, the main task of ATC is to effectively protect and promote air traffic safety, maintain air traffic order and protect the air traffic flow. The rapid development of China's civil aviation industry brings enormous safety pressure to the ATC System. At the same time, in the civil aviation accident statistics of China, although the proportion of accidents caused by ATC is little, but it plays a very important role in the accidents, as the vast majority of security incidents are directly and indirectly associated with the ATC. Therefore, Studying on coupling models for safety risk of ATC based on the theories of risk management, biology, physics and other theories is of great practical significance for improving the level of safety risk management of ATC.In this thesis, the following five aspects of the coupling models of ATC safety risks have been studied. First of all, this thesis reviewes the current research situation of related theories at home and abroad. Secondly, the content of ATC safety risks is put forward from the basic concept of security and risk, on this basic, the content of safety risks coupling for ATC is defined, and the coupling type of ATC safety risk is summarized. Then on the base of searching relevant documents and interviews, this thesis designs the questionnaires of ATC safety risk factors from personnel, equipment, environment and management, analyzes the obtained data from sample surveys for domestic ATC employees by mathematical statistics method, refines and optimizes the ATC safety risk factors. Then this thesis introduces three main coupling models, which are interpretation structural model (ISM), coupling degree model, and nonlinear dynamic model. Based on the comparison and analysis for these three coupling models, the construction methods of ATC safety risk coupling model is discussed, including the construction method of ATC safety risk index, the measurement method of risk indicators and indicators'weight. And then this thesis applys ISM, coupling degree model, and the nonlinear dynamic model, analyses ATC safety risk. The results show that it is feasible to adopt these three coupling models to discuss the coupling regularity of safety risk for ATC. Finally, this thesis summarizes the research results and innovations, finds its shortcomings and the areas improveme-nt, pointes out the direction for further study.This thesis introduces the concept of coupling to the ATC safety risk management, constructes the safety risk coupling model for ATC using the theory of physics, and investigates the coupling degree of safety risk for ATC, so it is innovative in assessing safety risk of ATC. In this thesis, the methods of frequency analysis and empirical research are adopt to study safety risk factors for ATC, the safety risk indexes system for ATC is construced on this basis, and the safety risk indexes system for ATC is optimized. By the construcion of safety risk coupling model for ATC, this thesis reveales the inherent interaction regularity of safety risk for ATC, it will help to prevent and correct the initiation and evolution of ATC safety risk, improve the level of ATC safety risk management, and promote China civil aviation to develop fast and good.