Study On Operational Risk Coupling Of Urban Rail Transit

ABSTRACT:Urban rail transit is a huge system, which includes a number of different professional fields with big temporal and spatial span, and obtains many complex operational risk factors that may lead to many operation accidents. Mutual interactions between operation risk factors usually result in operation accident even some serious ones. However, no study on risk coupling has been conducted in URT accident analyzing area because the mechanism of risk coupling remains unclear.Aiming at the issue, this study creatively proposed approaches for operation risk coupling in URT, analyzed the process of risk coupling, discussed the law of risk coupling among person, equipment, environment and management and divided the four factors into two main type, homogeneous coupling and heterogeneous coupling.According to the SD model in system dynamics, coupling relationships are qualitatively analyzed for the two types. Different coupling degree models were selected for quantitative calculation. For homogeneous coupling, coupling degree model on cloud theory was established to calculate internal coupling degree respectively for every risk in a microscopic view. For heterogeneous coupling, N-K coupling model was used to calculate the coupling degree among the four risks in a macroscopic way. These coupling degree models were validated with case studies.Based on the analysis above and the operational risk management demand in URT, this study built and implemented a hierarchical management system for operation risks to reduce the risk level and improve the operation efficiency.Above all, this study explained the URT operational risk coupling law qualitatively and quantitatively, which was the theory basis of risk hierarchical management. And it will come to a better understanding of risk coupling for URT operation and promote the operation management level.