Security Analysis And Evaluation In Civil Aviation Maintenance Based On Human Factor

In recent years, human factor has become the main cause for aviation accidents because the fast development of aviation technology leads to a reduction of aviation accidents caused by equipment failure from 80% to 3%. Statistic information from International Aviation Maintenance Association (IAMA) shows that 80% of the aviation accidents result from human factor. Traditionally, most of the research works of human factor focus on the flight crew rather than air control staff. Now lots of research about the aviation accidents cases illuminate that inspectors and maintenance staff are becoming the most important part of human factor. Analyzing the human factor and reliability of maintenance can help a lot both in finding innovative strategies from a whole new angle and ideas and reducing negative effects. Thus it can promote aviation safety which is of much importance.Firstly, study of the existing models of human factor has been conducted. Combining with its own characteristics of aviation maintenance, a practical framework and a hierarchical structure model of analyzing aviation maintenance human factor have been proposed. A qualitative three-dimensional accident causes analyzing method has been obtained by utilizing the above framework and model. The feasibility of this method has also been verified.Secondly, the calculation of maintenance error rate has been conducted by using Bayes Method. The quantitative estimation calculation of human factor has been conducted by utilizing the Gray System Theory and Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process which can find the causes of accidents exactly and objectively. Thus the similar accidents can be avoided by analyzing the cases which may strengthen the aviation security.Thirdly, an aviation human factor safety analyzing research model based on Bayes network is proposed. This model can find the weak part of the whole safety system precisely by using its unique calculation and reasoning method. When analyzing the internal Bayes network, a special algorithm of IBN has been utilized, it can overcome the limitation of the traditional calculating method with single node probability. In order to obtain a more objective result, a Guass Bayes network analyzing method has been used to find out the mutual relation between the external factors and hidden factors.At last, different kinds of information acquisition method have been studied. An information acquisition and management framework has been proposed from the angle of airplane and human respectively. Standard information acquisition and strengthened information management can provide strategy supports for maintenance safety management.