Research On Aircraft Maintenance Risk Assessment Based On Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

With the rapid development of aviation technology and aircraft manufacturing industry,the reliability and safety of aircraft has been improved greatly. The proportion of accidentsdue to aircraft mechanical failure declines from 80% to 20%, while the aircraft maintenancerisk is showing an upward trend. As an important part of the civil aviation, aircraftmaintenance is one of the important factors which are related to aviation safety and efficiency.Therefore, the risk evaluation of the aircraft maintenance is an important issue which peoplefocus on.This research is a part of the project:“The risk management research of Airlineoperation—the Cross-cutting project of airlines”. In order to reduce the risk of the aircraftmaintenance effectively, make the maintenance work to be more security and smoothly, thepaper identifies and classifies the risk sources using the SHEL model and causal analysis andso on. The paper compiled the risk evaluation index system, established the risk assessmentmodel of aircraft maintenance, and provided the theory support for the research of themaintenance risk management.The first chapter chiefly introduces the characteristics and overview of the aircraftmaintenance industry in our country, analyzes the safety management theory and summariesthe research situation of the risk assessment in the domestic and foreign; the second mainlyintroduces the concept of risk, risk identification and risk assessment; the thesis which wascombined with the characteristics of aviation maintenance risk put forward the fuzzy analytichierarchy process to evaluate the maintenance risk; the third chapter mainly introduces thefuzzy analytic hierarchy process; the fourth is to use the SHEL model and causal analyticalmethod to recognize the risk source in aviation maintenance, and establish the risk indexsystem. Finally, the paper establishes an aviation maintenance risk evaluation model, and thenuses the model to determine the important degree of the risk factors.In the end, it is a comprehensive risk evaluation of the maintenance system. In order toverify the model’s validity, the paper evaluates the maintenance risk comprehensively usingthe risk assessment model.