Research On Evaluation Method Of Reliability Of Complex Human-Machine Systems

Large and complex man-machine system is a whole complex network structures which is made of modern large artificial devices and human tissue composition. These systems realize the monitoring and control of mechanical equipment by human-beings, and achieve their objectives and create enormous social value under the influence of the external environment and through the flow of information exchange. However, due to the systems’ enormous size and complex high-tech, once the accident occurred, it will make great losses, which increases the demands of the reliability of complex human-machine systems. This article will take the high-speed rail dispatch system for example to study the reliability evaluation of complex human-machine systems.This Research outlined the components of the complex human-machine systems’ reliability from the characteristics of human tissue, characteristics of the equipment and environmental factors’affect three aspects. From the perspective of the man-machine ring, first started from the definition and conduct of human reliability analysis, through the human error, and then studied the types of mechanical equipment failures and the law in the mechanical equipment failures and also analyze the reliability and looking for the environment influence factors for human tissues and the operation of the equipment.This research take a comparison of common reliability evaluation method, according to the characteristics of complex human-machine systems chosen Fuzzy Evaluation Method and Bayes Network as reliability evaluation method for complex human-machine systems, and take an in-depth research of these two methods in their theory and applications.Take the high-speed rail dispatch system for example, this paper analyzes and summarizes the existing dispatching system construction of the railway and high-speed railway, then choose a suitable dispatching scheduling mode with the combination of existing lines of our country’s regional focus. On this basis, analyze the six subsystems functional structure of the high-speed rail scheduling system, in order to find the flow of information between the various subsystems to complete the contact network topology of the exchange of information between subsystems, and analyze the personnel structure and personnel information exchange processes of the high-speed rail scheduling staff.This research defines the factors that effect on the reliability of high-speed rail system and analyze the scheduled reliability, choose the perspective of complex human-machine systems starting from a reliability factor in the evaluation of human factors and systems in two ways. Analyze the types of human errors of high-speed rail dispatch system to carry out human reliability analysis, using the theory of fuzzy reliability fuzzy evaluation to conduct human reliability. Use Bayes network approach to build Bayes qualitative and quantitative models under FMEA of the high-speed rail network scheduling system, and set an example for planning and scheduling subsystem reliability evaluation. Verified the feasibility of this two evaluation methods.