Research On Reliability Of Weapon Systems

The reliability of weapon system is the ability of weapons to accomplish its assigned task without any fault. To analyze the reliability of weapons can not only estimate the level of reliability of weapons and their components, but also find out the factors which have an effect on the reliability of weapons. So that it will provide scientific basis to weapons'design and manufacture. The research on the reliability is a very important part of weapons'effectiveness evaluation.Firstly, this thesis gives the basic indicators which are used to evaluate the reliability of weapons. The indicators'formulas and overall parameter estimation are derived according to their practical significance by the methods of Probability and Statistics. The Bayesian method of parameter estimation when there is not enough test data is studied.Secondly, Failure analysis of weapon system based on Fault Tree Analysis is studied, which includes the establishment of fault tree, qualitative analysis to find out the crucial parts that result in system failure and quantitative analysis about how to calculate the failure rate of the whole system according to its components'failure rates. The method that calculates the probability of the top event is improved by using recursion;Thirdly, Orthogonal Test is used to analyze the effective factors of MCSP which is an very important indicator of the reliability of weapon systems. The significance of subsystems of weapons is studied in terms of variance and orthogonal table. The optimum combination is identified;Finally, the Reliability Analysis Software is designed and realized, which uses Fault Tree Analysis and Orthogonal Test as theoretic basis. The software contains the functions of basic indicators calculation, quantitative and qualitative analysis of Fault Tree, and Orthogonal Test Analysis etc.