Study On Monitoring And Forecasting Model Of Reservoir Slope Mixed Stacking Deformation

Landslide is a common sudden geological disaster. According to the statistics, the occurrence of landslides in southwest China accounts for more than half of the number of landslides and as the development of national economy, the trend of the frequency and scale of landslide disasters has increased year by year. The mixed accumulation the paper studied refers to a class of landslide of the Quaternary and contemporary loose accumulation, which occupies a large proportion in the landslides. This class slope has two features:the complex structure, easily change, loose structure and strong permeability. Through the two big characteristics, first it determines the method of the displacement monitoring and displacement information prediction occupies an important position in such evaluation and prediction of landslides and plays a key role. Second, it determines the effect of rainfall and groundwater is the main driving force factor to lead to their displacement and instability. Thus, according to the instability and displacement motives law of the class slope, how to establish and improve the methodology of the evaluation and prediction of landslide, which has the important theoretical and practical significance.The article studies under project of the "A hai hydropower reservoir affect the GNSS deformational observation of the outlook area". which is carried out and supported. Through the field investigation, the author initiatively understands the formation process and the status of the slope of the repository accumulation landslides, and selects the "new" accumulation of A hai Hydropower slope to carry through the research of monitor and prediction. On the basis of its monitoring and investigation, it summarized the theory and method of prediction and assessment of landslide displacement information, which used the basic principles of nonlinear science and dynamic systems and analyzed and studied the characteristics and relations of underground water hydrodynamic factors in the displacement law. This article summarized as follows:(1)research status and development of the landslide; (2) the presentation of the basic elements of the mixed accumulation and the characteristics of instability dynamics, and the background and status of geological in A hai accumulation landslides; (3) the displacement monitoring technology and optimization principles of the accumulation landslide; (4) the application of using R/ S analysis method for prediction and criterion in accumulation landslides and study the impact of the rate of decline of water level on slope stability and the circumstances of fractal Hurst index changing in the displacement of the monitoring point, through the analysis of the changes, as the pre-sentence basis of stability of A hai hydropower station’s "new" accumulation; (5) combined with the measured data, it establishes the dimensional dynamic GM(1,1) model, and analyzes the predicted results of this model, and compares the results with the post-measured data of the "new" accumulation, computes the prediction residuals, and evaluates the accuracy of the model, at last reaches a conclusion that the accuracy of the model is valid, and applicable to the displacement and settlement prediction of the "new" accumulation.