Seaborne Trade Forecasting And Merchant Fleet Planning For Australia

As water surrounded country- Australia is forced to do its best for the improvement of its own merchant fleet. On the other hand, Australia is one of the world export leader countries for bulk cargoes. That provides Australian ships with enough cargo in any time. How to connect the demand side (cargoes) and the supply side (ships) in the Australian case is the task of this research paper.This paper shows past and present state of the Australian seaborne trade activities and Australian merchant fleet. Applying different econometrics models and mathematical model for the fleet planning (FPSE), we would like to predict situation in Australian shipping industry in the near future with more certainty as possible. In addition, forecasting for the Australian seaborne trade (for main export commodities) and fleet planning (for three types of vessels) are essential part of this work.The maritime economy is enormously complex and the first task is to simplify the model by singling out those factors that are the most important. From the many influences on the shipping market, in our case, we select Australian seaborne commodity trades from the demand side and Australian merchant fleet from the supply side.Consequently, in this work some other factors are represented (for instance: population, policy, geographic position) but anyhow two the above mentioned factors are base for our research and our obtained results.