Research On The Reliability Of The Intensity Of Main Pipes For Municipal Water Supply

After analyzing the merits and shortcomings of the current methods for leak hunting of municipal water supply network and inducing the reasons that cause the pipe leakage,this thesis pointed out that the water supply network should be evaluated synthetically by means of reliability theory. Be short of the primitive data,the thesis selected the method of Monte-Carlo to calculate the reliability of pipe wall. First according to the limited primitive information to confirm the type and characteristic value of the distributing,then used Monte-Carlo method to generate artificial numbers according to these rules for analysis and reliability operation.Depend on the invalidation of the current network's statistic;this thesis selected the gray cast iron pipes as the main object to research. It emphasized to analyze the types of all kinds of load,confirming the types and characteristic values with K-S method. All distributing are simulated by programs which are compiled in Matlab. This thesis induced the expression of stress in pipe wall caused by all kinds of out load. Finally,based on the types of all load,using Matlab,the reliability programs are compiled to calculate the reliability index under different design and different load combination. The results can be used to evaluate the relatively safety,and direct the leak hunting.