Study On Schedule Risk Analysis In The Engineering Project Network Planning And Critical Chain Scheduling

Keeping pace with the study frontier of network planning techniques, this thesisfocuses on schedule risk analysis in the project network and critical chain schedulingin order to overcome the shortcomings existing in the traditional network planningtechniques. The main work includes as follows:a) Since most of the previous models and methods of project network Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and schedule risk analysis have drawbacks and limitations to some degree, it is suggested that project schedule risk analysis be implemented at both the macroscopic level of project and the microscopic level of activity.b) At the project level, the simulation calculation algorithm of the expectation of total bonus and liquidated damages, as well as the project completion probability or completion risk given a project completion time, is presented. And a dynamic sampling method is proposed to improve the simulation efficiency, which dynamically determines the simulation times to satisfy the predetermined precision.c) At the activity level, the notion of criticality in the network planning is expanded to combine with the project risk. According to a thorough comparison and analysis of several classical criticality (risk) indexes including Path Criticality Probability (PCP), Activity Criticality Probability (ACP), Activity 'Cruciality' Index (ACI), all these indexes have limitations and pitfalls to some degree. Therefore, Activity Compound Criticality Index (ACCI) is presented as a compound index of ACP and ACI, and on the basis of ACCI, Project Compound Criticality Index (PCCI), a new index that reflects the criticality (risk) of a whole project or subproject is proposed. Furthermore, the roles that these indexes may play in the project decision and management are highlighted.d) Furthermore, by absorbing the ideas of world-famous project management software such as P3 and Microsoft Project, a network planning MCS software, NETSIMU, has been developed with the Visual C++ based on the Object-Oriented (OO) ideas. By virtue of NETSIMU, the schedule risk of the third bid (spillway bid) project in GongBoXia hydropower station issystematically analyzed, which shows that the method and ideas above as well as the software itself are effective and feasible.e) Finally, Critical Chain Scheduling (CCS), known as a breakthrough in the field of project management, is briefed. The underlying assumptions and fundamentals of CCS are thoroughly analyzed and the merits and pitfalls are demonstrated, so as to effectively and rationally apply this potential scheduling method into the engineering project management. Summarily, this thesis not only helps the project decision-maker and manager to beacquainted with the project risk status comprehensively and accurately so as to ensureproject completion, but also provide basis for determining a rational project duration.Furthermore, this thesis lays the foundation for the CCS to spread into projectmanagement of large and complex engineering.