Reservoir Real-time Optimal Operation Based On Runoff Forecasting

Reservoir benefits depend on its operation. A new method called minimal abandoned water (MAW) for the reservoir real time operation is researched in this paper. MAW is based on the runoff forecasting with the runoff random and water use by departments considered. Reservoir management for real time operation can reference this method. The main research work as follow:1. Runoff forecastingRunoff forecasting by artificial neural networks (ANN) is researched. One improved BP training algorithm is put forward. The preprocessing function Sigmoid is studied, and advice for data preprocessing is given. ANN's model for runoff forecasting of reservoir Zhaopingtai is created.Some problems about ANN in runoff forecasting are discussed. One assess model for runoff forecasting based on reliability is introduced.2. Runoff SimulationThe current method of runoff forecasting usually gives discrete outcome that can't meet the needs of reservoir real time operation. Runoff simulation is post processing of the runoff forecasting for the MAW. Runoff simulation's outcome is one of inputs of MAW.Runoff simulation is put forward and the basic principles are detailed. The input, outcome and programming are studied.3. Minimal abandoned water for reservoir operationReservoir management pursuits benefits and the objective function for reservoir optimal operation usually is the maximal electricity. However, water shortage is the fact in our country, so how to improve the effectiveness of water use is worth to be researched. MAW different from the maximal electricity method is that the maximal electricity method pursuits the maximal electricity and the MAW pursuits the maximal electricity after the effectiveness of the water use first.The maximal electricity is replaced by principle maximal burden and late as possible in solution, In this way the MAW can be realized, and it is equal to the maximal electricity in operation.The scope of MAW is basically to the scope of dynamic programming, but it is much better in speed and precision than dynamic programming.The method specializing small hydropower plant is also researched.