Application Of A New Flood Stochastic Simulation Model Developed By Russian Hydrologist In The Basin Of Qiantang River

In order to simulate flood process better, the study focus on the application of a new flood stochastic simulation model developed by Russian hydrologist, which could describe the characteristics of rapid rise and slow fall for flood hydrograph, in the southern region of China. The flood process in the basin of Qiantang river is selected as a case study. Due to shortage of application experience for the new model, there are several simple empirical treatment even no treatment for some segments in the model, for example, rise time distribution et al. In terms of the case study, some reasonable treatments are pointed out. In the case study, a lot of stochastic tests have been done for the new model, including the test of annual maximum peak flow, annual flood volumes . The results show that flood process simulated may pass all tests, so it's said that the new model is feasible to simulate the flood process for the basin. Otherwise, the new model is compared with the conventional models ,including seasonal AR(l)modeI and the Disaggregation model by statistical test for simulation flood process. The result s show that the new model is better than the other two's model.