The Stochastic Simulation Method Application In Design Flood Of Manas River Basin

It plays a significant role in flood control to build dams and build up reservoir above the river,but reservoir itself directly stands the threat of flooding, once the flood overflows dams,which will cause severe damage. In order to deal with flood control,while designing hydraulic structures,it is essential to choose an appropriate flood as the basis, If this flood is designed too large, the project cost will increase but not economy,while the project is relatively safe;If it is designed too small,although the project cost decreases,the risk of damage increases,therefore it is crucial for the accuracy of designing flood.The main contents of this article as follows:(1) The analysis and research on the causes and hydrological characteristics of flood for Manas River Select a typical site,select and collect the hydrological information of Manas River, to analyze and study the causes and hydrological characteristics of flood.The results show that:floods of Mary River mainly concentrates in July and August during the flood season. Flood mainly regards high-temperature melting of glaciers and permanent snow as focal point, rainfall supplement as assistance.(2) The comparison research of Hydrologic random Simulation Model for Manas River basin To establish the regression model and disaggregation Model of Hydrologic random Simulation with Manas river basin, model parameters adopt Moment Statistics, to do random simulation of daily runoff process in the whole flood season for Ken watt station, to work out Fortran program and simulate in order to formulate the corresponding flood series of basin hydrological characteristics;respectively to do residuals and practical tests od models,by the practical test of model.drawing the conclusion, regression model takes the change of cross correlation coefficient into account,which can meet the changing characteristics of the flood, is more applicable to hydrological modeling of the basin.(3) Review research on the design of flood for Manas RiverThough the regression model simulating the series of flood to design the flood calculation, to do frequency analysis of Flood peak and flood flow of volume, using the same frequency method,to amplify the selected typical flood process as the designed flood process,the review research on the design of flood for Manas River basin, flood simulation tests show that the simulation flood reflects major random nature and other characteristics of flood in the region,which is applicable to Manas River basin,meanwhile it has instructive significance for the high cold mountain area to design flood,the research has opened a new research approach for the design of flood with Manas river basin.