Risk Assessment Of Breakwater Design

Design Code and physical model of coastal structures always considers the input wave and sea level as determinate combinations, for example, a combination of 50 yrs return period wave height and 50 yrs return period sea level, or other combinations, are used to experimental modeling or calculation by design codes. But both of physical modeling or calculation by design code neglected the uncertainty analysis of input parameters and probabilistic characteristics of outputs.This thesis proposes a stochastic analysis method of risk assessment for breakwater wave overtopping and stability by physical experiments and calculated results by design codes. Uncertainty-sensitivity analysis and multivariate joint probability study of input wave and sea level are used for experiments and calculation by China design code, formula Delft and Goda. The new method involves probability characteristics of input and outputs in modeling tests and calculation by different method, and it can be used for risk assessment of design calculation and experiments for 2008 Olympic sailing game breakwater wave overtopping and stability study.