Risk Analysis On Stability Of Vertical Breakwater

The rapid development of the science and technology brings along socialadvancement as with as unprecedented risk. The comprehensive security and risk ofthe structure system can be analyzed by risk analysis method, which is an syntheticboundary subject. It has acquired intense attention of engineering field and academicfield home and abroad, and become an important subject in present study. The basiccontents of risk analysis are introduced and verifying engineering cases are analyzedin this paper. Furthermore, the risk analysis method is applied to practical engineeringproject of vertical breakwater. The main achievement can be concluded as follow.1.The basic concepts, theory and methods of risk analysis are introduced. In viewof present achievement and failure analysis report home and abroad, the failure tree ofvertical caisson breakwater is established.2.The risk factors concerning harbor engineering are classified. The uncertaintyof risk factors and model disposal are analyzed in detail, which supply an accuratemeasure criterion for further risk quantification. In light of the immaturity ofcomputer model of vertical breakwater under stochastic waves, a program combiningboth code and Goda method is compiled to calculate the wave force, which is verifiedin cases.3.Combining probability theory and structure limit state design theory, the riskmodels for vertical breakwater concluding the horizon slipping failure, overturningcollapse, rubble-mound foundation collapse and foundation bearing capacity failure isestablished. The limit analysis method is applied in the failure of foundation bearingcapacity, which is theoretically superior to the traditional methods. It's proved by thecase analysis that the limit analysis method is suitable for risk analysis withconceptual clarity and simpleness in calculation.4.Taking the failure of a vertical breakwater structure in harbor engineering forexample, the application of risk analysis in engineering is further illustrated. Theuncertainty and risk evaluation criterion of the model is analyzed and discussed, fromwhich some valuable conclusions are obtained. This analysis process can generally beintroduced into practical engineering and will supply credible criterion for theengineering design and management decision making.