Load Prediction And Economical Decision-making Of Accumulator System Supplying Heat

The electric power storage technique is an important technical tool to remove the peak load and fill the valley ,this to insure economical opreation of electric net .there are two kinds of cold and thermal energy storage equipments. The use of them can optimize resource arrangement and protect ecological environment . The electric thermal energy storage is a primary application of the electric technology of power storage. It has impotant significance to do the economical and decision-making analysis of it. The load predicting is an essential component in the economic and decision-making analysis. In the paper ANN method has introduced. Many influnce factors to the thermal were taken into consideration. A BP short-term model of load prediction was established. Considering the problems of converging and operating of BP moodel, GA method was used to amend its value of weign and threshold, in account of signatitg promblem, the capability of two arthmetic in MATLAB were tested.By summing up the results attained a model of short-term was advanced can more precisly predict the thermal load and more simple in operation and convergence quiker. Meanwhile , the paper has provided an example of the small town, and attained a set of load curve of actual and predicting. An analysis on reasons of error was discussed in detail. Based on load predication, the paper applied the basic principle of analyzing method of technical-economy established a target function of electric system of thermal energy storage which included the operating and original consumption in accordance with the time-sharing charge policy of our country. introducing the storage rate in the function, and transformed target function to a function of thermal storage rate . By using of an example the method proposed above was fully confirmed and the best thermal storage rate for a small town. The influence on the economical operation of the electric themal storage system the ratio of peak to valley power was also dicussed. The date detailed determinastic analysis was proposed.