A Forecast Study Of The Risk Of Collision Of Ships At Liujiaxia Reservoir

Liujiaxia Reservoir is situated at Linxia Prefecture Gansu Province. The main ship traffic of the reservoir are short-range passenger/cargo transportation, ferry transportation and tourism. The positive policies of the government provide an opptunity for this reservoir to develop ship transportation rapidly. Recent years, ship transportation has really developed with high speed. In order to make a functional ship traffic management plan based on the idea that precautionary measures is the best way to prevent damage the author decided to do this study. In this paper, the methods of forecasting the traffic volume and risk of collision of ships in this reservoir in 15 years and some of the results are expounded.At the beginning, the forecast concerned are summed up and discussed. Then the situation of the macro economy of Gansu Province and Linxia Prefecture are discussed and using the data from authorized argent and the tendency extension mathematical method the development of these districts in 15 years are forecasted with the index of gross domestic production. The volume of ship traffic of Liujiaxia Reservoir in 15 years is forecasted based on the shipping development strategy of Gansu Province and Linxia Prefecture and the historical ship transportation data of Liujiaxia Reservoir and others, and in this work the regression analysis method is used. Spot investigation and questionnaire are carried out and using the specialized knowledge and experiences of the author the traffic volume and collision risk area of the reservoir in 15 years is forecasted. Mathematical model for ships collision risk assessment is established taking references of the works worldwide. Computer simulation model is established and simulation test plan is drawn up and simulation try is done. Some initial simulation results are acquired.The features of this paper are as follows: the forecast of collision risk of Liujiaxia Reservoir is based on the forecast of the economic development of the hinterland of the reservoir; data are collected worldwide, and spot investigation and questionnaire arecarried out. The collision risk model established is simple and functional; quantitative forecast and qualitative forecast are used organically; computer simulation technology is utilized; close attention is paid to both the theoretical study and practical utilization of the results of study.