A Forecast Study Of The Risk Of Collision Of Ships At Liujiaxia Reservoir Based On Computer Simulation

Liujiaxia Reservoir is situated at Linxia Prefecture Gansu Province. The main traffic of the reservoir is short-range passenger/cargo transportation and ferry transportation. The requirement of shipping is increasing day by day, as the exploiting of the tour resource around the reservoir. The problem, which is brought by developing ship transportation with high speed, is the ship traffic risk. And the main traffic risk is the ship collision.The volume of ship traffic of Liujiaxia Reservoir in 15 years is forecasted base on the shipping development data of Liujiaxia Reservoir and others, and in this work the analogy method and qualitative analysis are used. Then this paper brought forward the collision risk assessment model for the ships of Liujiaxia Reservoir, which is based on a summarized analysis of domestic and abroad study. Based on the traffic survey, several random distribution models are raised for the ships' occurrence and development. The program for ship traffic simulation is worked out by VC++.net, and ships collision risk on each fairway is estimated by running this program. According to the result of the simulation, some suggestions are given for traffic planning in the future.When running the program for the fairway at present, the result of the simulation is coherent with the results of the danger degree of all fairways by survey. So the simulation model for ships is creditable and feasible.