Making Use Of System Decision Theory Determine Target Values Of Light Rail Train Moving Speed

In these several years, urban mass transit of our country is springing up vigorously. Determine the moving speed is one of the emphases for the earlier stage demonstration of railway traffic. Moving speed correlates tightly the technique, investment and operating cost. We have no unique technical standards in the select of targeted speed at present. In the course of research and demonstration, the method which is the quantitative comparison of project investment and other qualitative demonstration is continued to use, although these method has quite a few drawbacks. In view of this situation, this article adopts "system decision theory" to study targeted speed in the course of earlier stage of demonstration in Tianjin light rail. This paper is an attempt to make a breakthrough on this problem. The thesis determine the factors which influence the selection of targeted speed through the analysis of social environment where the Tianjin light rail lies, transport function which is the light rail undertake and the expectation of policymaker;find relations between these factors, intend targeted speed and decision system objectives;founding evaluation indexes system of decision according to influencing factors of scheme and structural relation of objectives;progressing element analysis using decision theory. The concrete factors were classified quantificationally and qualitatively. Three determined plan also were decided initially. Analytic hierarchy process which is the most applicable to thisresearch task among several research methods is adopted according to concrete situation for objectives. Using analytic hierarchy process, the best-rate targeted speed was obtained according to computational analysis of factors which influence targeted speed.