Research On The Long-medium Term Power Load Forecasting Of The Rural Electric Power Network

The long-medium term power load forecasting is an important work in the research of electric power, and it effect the layout and run of the power system. There are many factors that effect system load and uptodate there is not a method which can be used in any case. According to the situation of the rural electric power network in tangshan zone, the fit methods are presented.Associating with the situation of the rural electric power network in tangshan zone, the application of gray system theory and the partial least square method(PLS) in load forecasting was analyzed in this paper. Firstly great improvement was made in Grey model and the two-gray model is introduced into the field of load forecasting. The precision of Gray Model forecasting was improved and the application rang was expanded. Secondly the variable selection method based on PLS component is proposed in order to reduce the variable used in the partial least square method(PLS); and then the PLS method is used in the research of long-medium term power load forecasting. And through typical practical examples the feasibility and advantage of the method. Finally, several sets of methods were used in the long-medium term power load forecasting of Tangshan and good results were obtained.