Research Of Distribution Middle And Long-term Electrical Load Forecasting Based On Gray Model And Fuzzy Theory

Distribution middle and long-term electrical load forecasting is the foundation of distribution planning, precise forecasting is the guarantee of planning. Middle and long-term load forecasting are separated into two parts: load gross forecasting and special load forecasting, this paper discussed them two.This paper proposed a variable weight combination prediction based on gray theory, and which is valid for S cave forecasting. Load curves were analyzed, different trend phases were founded different gray models after combined, predicted by each, load forecasting was realized by variable weight combination prediction finally, which raised prediction precision. In spatial load forecasting, this paper proposed a spatial electrical load forecasting method based on fuzzy multi-objective many-person decision. When making land-use decision, multi-objective many-person decision theory was applied. Geography factors were considered, the comparatively weight of factors described by fuzzy language, which changed to precision weight by ana1ytic hierarchy process, after several experts made decision independently, final land-use decision was made based on every experts. Use of many-person decision debased subjectivity of land-use decision, improved precision of forecasting.These algorithms were programmed, and validated by instances.