Research On Comprehensive Medium And Long Term Load Forecasting Model Of Lvliang

Load forecasting is one of the basic works of power network planning. It provides necessary and basic data for power network planning, the precision of these data decides the quality of power network planning. Load forecasting has many uncertain influence factors, and each method or model for load forecasting has its own advantages, faults and application range, and the predicting idea varies greatly, so it is of great difficulty to forecast load accurately.This paper analyzes and discusses every aspects of load forecasting involved in the power networks planning, which including object, content, and flow, method, principle and model of load forecasting etc. The load forecasting in power network planning is tudied synthetically, which emphasizes on the model of load forecasting.As to the model, each single model suited to the load forecasting in power net work planning is analyzed in detail, which advantages, disadvantages and application range are summarized. On combined forecasting, the model is studied in this paper, the method in common use and hot topic in current study is discussed, then a new model based gray correlation to different weight to the best combination, which can improve the prediction accuracy.Lastly, based on the proposed model and combined forecasting, on the analysis to the load characteristic of Lvliang, Load forecasting and result calibration of Lvliang based on single model and the combination model is given, selecting by calculating the load forecast for the model Lvliang City.