Research On The Application Of Flood Forecasting And Regulating Model In The Basin Of Yishusi

The basin of Yishusi, located in the northeast of the Huaihe River, is a semi-arid region of China. The network of waterways is complicated in the basin. The terrain is much undulant, the main channels are near to the sources and the current is torrential, the flood amount is often large and the flood peak discharge is always on the top, it is very quick for the up-and-down of flood-wind, and the forecasting-time of flood is short. The capacity of the flowing flood and storage flood of existing hydraulic engineering works is very weak. At present, the system of flood prevention and decision-making of the basin is unsubstantial, and the number of hydrologic stations is short, which affects not only the accuracy of flood forecasting, but the veracity and real-time processing of flood scheduling. Therefore it is very important for flood preventing and disaster decreasing to complete the work of flood forecasting and scheduling successfully in the basin of Yishusi.According to the required accuracy of flood forecasting and the cases of the hydrologic station distribution, the basin is divided into several sub-basins.the Three- water Sources Xinanjiang model is carried on the rainfall-runoff calculating in every sub-basin. Flow routing from the sub-basin outlets to the whole basin outlet may be achieved by applying the Muskingum successive reaches model with considering the application of the strobes. In order to improve the accuracy of flood forecasting, the autoregressive model is applied. In this paper the faded-memory least square method is applied on real-time correction and the variation of forgetting factors influencing on the accuracy of flood forecasting of the basin is studied.In upper reaches of the Yishusi basin above the Linyi hydrologic station, the terrain is much undulant and the network of waterways is complicated. The linchpin of flood scheduling is the management of the Linyi flood peak discharge in the basin of Yishusi. In order to find the better flood forecasting model, the Grid-Xinanjiang, TOPMODEL, and GTOPMODEL are applied on the basin.The results show two points. Firstly, the Xinanjiang model can complete flood forecasting and scheduling in the Yishusi basin. Secondly, the Grid-Xinanjiang model, TOPMODEL, GTOPMODEL can do well in Linyi basin. Grid-Xinanjiang model and GTOPMODEL model perform better, which proves the rationality and reliability of Grid-Xinanjiang model.