The Study On Real-time Flood Forecasting Model For Guxian Resevoir

Real-Time flood forcasting technique is widely used in China recently. The forcasting model plays a key role in Real-Time flood forcasting system. Good forcasting model and adjusting model will be very helpful for improving the accuracy of flood forcasting and thus provide support for flood control decision.In this paper,based on the conditions of geography, hydrology, meteorology and the demand for flood foresting in this basin, the characteristics of rainfall and floods in the basin are firstly analyzed. By using Xinanjiang hydrological model for rainfall -runoff forecasting, Muskingum Method for flood routing, the flood forecasting model for this basin is set up.The error and the time lag between rainfall and flood for flood forecasting in this basin are analyzed.The recursive least-squares method is used to adjust the discharge forecasted by hydrology model. The model calibration and validation shows better results and accuracy.The study will be very helpful for improving the flood forecasting in this basin and provide powerful guidance and support for flood control decision.