| With the high speed development of economy,the energy shortage problem comes about, which impel coal industry to develop with higher speed. However, the displacement and deformation of surface ground by underground mining have destroyed initial equilibrium between the building and the ground. Additional stress comes about in the building and structure with the result of reestablishment of equilibrium on forces system ,and the additional stress leads building and structure to deform,even to be destroyed when status being serious. So it is very important and essential to accurately predict the influence of coal mining and take enough safety measures in advance. According to the status of mining under lake in the No.2 well of XIN'AN,SHANDONG province,this paper respectively predict the displacement and deformation of surface ground with Probability Integration method and Fast Lagrangian Analysis of Continuain 3 Dimensions (FLAC3D is a three-dimensional explicit finite-difference program),then compare and analyse the forecasts,which determine the respective advantages and disadvantages of the two methods,and under what circumstances the two methods are applied respectively.The main work this paper do are these like below:1 , This paper reviewed and summarized the prediction methods for endangerment, and the common prediction methods used in our country.2, Introduced and studied Probability Integration method, and used the theory to predict the endangerment of HUDONG Bank in the No.2 well of XIN' AN,and resulted in a series of forecasts.3, Introduced and studied FLAC3D, and also using the theory to predict the endangerment of HUDONG Bank in the No.2 well of XIN' AN,and resulted in a series of forecasts.4, This paper introduced detailedly the overview of engineering in the No.2 well of XIN'AN,and introduced the working face having been mined and the observation of displacement and deformation of surface ground after falling backward.5, Through comparing and analysing two methods of evaluation indicators and the coincident degrees between the results by evaluating the actual situation, which determine the respective advantages and disadvantages of the two methods,and give the conclusion of what circumstances the two methods are applied to respectively.6, Summarizing textual work in brief and puting an outlook on the further comparison and analysis of the two methods. |