Study On Mechanics And Forecast Model Of Geotechnical Engineering Freezing-melting Hazard In Cold Region

Freezing-melting hazard is one of geotechnical engineering hazards in cold region, because of its complexity, many geotechnical engineering questions are unable to evaluate by the accurate mathematical model. This paper study basic characteristic and prediction model of freezing-melting hazard on cold region by the system theory way.Base on the study to present catastrophology and Freezing-melting hazard, it is expatiated the significance of introducing the concept of freezing-melting hazard. The necessity have explained that studies on freezing-melting hazard with the view of the system theory and two kinds of freezing-melting hazard system have set up. One is the system that based on district disaster system, the other is freezing-melting hazard entity system. On the foundation of the entity system, fuzzy mathematics prediction model for freezing-melting hazard is given by the way of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation; provided two freezing-melting hazard prediction instances .One is qualitative prediction, the other is Quantification. This model can be used in disaster evaluation in Feasibility for project and long-term prediction for freezing-melting hazard. GM(1,1) prediction model base on the gray theory is given which include GM(1,1) prediction normal model, residual model, new information model and a instance is given. This model can be used for freezing-melting hazard monitoring and prediction. Last, the difference between gray theory GM(1,1) model and fuzzy mathematics prediction model for freezing-melting hazard is analyzed.