Study On The Evaluation Of Water Resources Carrying Capacity In Yangzhou

Water resource is one of the basic resources for the regional economic development. Exploring it reasonably, protecting it effectively and making sustainable use of it is an important and arduous task. Water resources carrying capacity is an important index to weigh regional sustainable development and a foundational measurement of water resources security, and it is an important and hot issue in the field of water resources research. Regional water resources carrying capacity relates to economy, environment and other resources. The factors affecting one another constitute a large complicate system. Therefore, by evaluating the regional water resources carrying capacity, we may not only understand the supporting function of water resources system for social development, harmonize developmental relationships among the population, resources and environment, but also we can realize the social sustainable development better.After reviewing a lot of literatures home and overseas on water resources carrying capacity, water resources science theory was applied in this paper, and the trend of society economy development, the water resources supplying and demanding of Yangzhou in 2010, 2015 and 2020 were forecasted and discussed by using systems analysis methods and qualitative and quantitative analysis methods, and with the aid of computer technology, grey system theory. On the basis of analyzing the factors affecting water resources carrying capacity, an appropriate evaluation index system was set up adapting to the status quo of Yangzhou and the weight of indexes was determined by applying analytical hierarchy process. Aiming at the fuzzy character and levels of factors, a multi-layer fuzzy comprehensive discrimination model was established to give objective evaluation and find out the genes that restrict water resources carrying capacity improvement. A preliminary research on the enhanced method of water resources carrying capacity in Yangzhou was also made to provide theoretic basis for the decision-making of planning and management as well as optimal allocation of water resources.