The Research Of Synthetic Forecasting Method For Mid-long Term Electricity Load Forecasting That Based On Feedback

This paper first gives a brief introduction of the definition, goals and significance of electricity load forecasting, then makes an analysis of the current conditions and prospects of mid-long term electricity load forecasting both at home and abroad and also points out the insufficiency in the method of mid-long term electricity load forecasting and the reasons of the low accuracy. This paper puts forward the method of mid-long term electricity load synthetic forecasting based on feedback based on the above reasons and consists of the following five parts, namely, I. Collection of previous data: two schemes are mentioned to solve the problems of the data insufficiency and rough from the previous data; II. On the basis of the current situations of forecasted power network, the paper points out the method of taking advantage of some single load forecasting method and synthetic forecasting method to get the forecasting value. There are three methods of obtaining synthetic forecasting model, namely, linear programming, ANN, GA with detailed derivation, analysis, comparison and example analyzing; III. Taking the error of load forecasting result caused by some uncertain factors into consideration and according to the fact whether the uncertain factors can be collected, two plans-ANN and variable weight synthetic error method are proposed in the paper. Then the result will be checked as the feedback used in the synthetic forecasting, which can increase the...