Study On Medium And Long-term Power Load Forecasting In Beng Bu Area

Medium and long term load forecasting provides very important basic data for power grid planning,and is one of the core data for power grid departments and even government departments to carry out planning work.It is applied to the planning level to provide reference for future planning of power grid and help to formulate strategic objectives of power industry.With the increasing demand of the whole society for digital governance,the previous relatively rough empirical medium and long-term load forecasting method has been unable to meet the requirements of more and more accurate load forecasting.If we can carry out more accurate medium and long-term load forecasting for Bengbu area,we can arrange the schedule of power system construction projects more scientifically and economically,which can not only ensure the power demand of the society,but also do not cause the capital waste of power grid construction,reduce the operation cost of power grid,and guide the decision-making more accurately with the digital concept.In this paper,the basic situation of medium and long-term power load of Bengbu Power Grid is analyzed,and the economic and national development of Bengbu area is discussed by using the data of GDP and electricity consumption collected and sorted out in recent years.This paper discusses the relationship between industrial structure and GDP in Bengbu City,analyzes the load growth and load characteristics in Bengbu,and forecasts the power demand in Bengbu.It can be seen that the proportion of primary industry in Bengbu will be smaller and smaller in the future.The proportion of tertiary industry has exceeded that of secondary industry for the first time in 2017.In the future,both secondary industry and tertiary industry will develop equally.The proportion of electricity consumption of the tertiary industry and residents is increasing.The trend of daily load curve in Bengbu area is: the difference of load curve in the next four seasons will be smaller and smaller,and the curve gap between load peak and load trough will be smaller and smaller.This also reflects the economic development achievements of Bengbu area.In this paper,the trend extrapolation method,regression analysis method,output value unit consumption method,elastic coefficient method and combination analysis method are used to forecast and analyze the medium and long-term power consumption of Bengbu area from 2020 to 2025.Then,the medium and long-term maximum load ofBengbu area from 2020 to 2025 is predicted and analyzed by using trend extrapolation method,maximum load utilization hours method and combination analysis method.This conclusion provides a reference for the economic and social development of Bengbu area in the next five years.On the basis of the prediction results and conclusions,the relevant suggestions are put forward.First,establish more timely data communication between the local government and the power sector;second,incorporate the power grid planning into the municipal planning system to avoid blind urban construction.