Water Resources Carrying Capacity Of Estuarine Island

Water resource is important for human life, social and economic development. With the population growth and socio-economic development, the contradictions in the supply and demand of water increasingly appeared. Water scarcity has seriously hampered the socio-economic development and ecological environment protection. Rapidly urbanization and industrialization made human society damage the ecological environment seriously. Water scarcity has become a global problem. Under this background, the study of water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) has become an important part in the water resource research field.From concept and content, characters and impacst of factors, different spatial scales, indicator system, theorys and research methods, thesis reviewed the study history of WRCC. Consequently, thesis discriminate the relationship of WRCC and water allocation, WRCC and water environment carrying capacity, WRCC and ecological environment water demand.Secondly, thesis discriminated the differents of water resource systems between estuarine island areas and regular areas, analyzed the characters of water resource system of estuarine island and the study characters of the water resources carrying capacity of estuarine island (WRCCEI) based on the quantity of water resource and the ecological environment water demond,Then thesis presented a study method and built a multi-screen system dynamics simulation model for WRCCEI.The model includes six parts , such as water supply system, water demand system, population system, economic system , sewage system and COD concentration system. Based the different quantity of water exploitation, the model set many screens, and simulate the WRCCEI under different water resource policies. Meanwhile, combining the development objectives of estuarine island areas of society, economy and environment, thesis built a qualitative evaluation methods, including three carriable index, such as social carriable index, economic carriable index and environmental carriable index.Chongming island is the third largest island of our country and the largest estuarine deposit island. Thesis took Shanghai Chongming island as an example, taking different water diversion (local surface water quantity, present water diversion, 10% largeset water diversion, 20% largest water diversion, 30% largest water diversion and 50% largest water diversion) as well as the different water resource policies (present water policy, water conservation and recycling policy, industrial structure adjustment policy and integrate policy) as different screens.And then thesis simulated the water resources carrying capacity of 2004 to 2020 of Chongming Island.Overall, thesis preliminary built a multi-screen system dynamics simulation model and presented an assessment method for researching the WRCCEI. By a case study on Shanghai Chongming Island, the results show that this methond is suitable for the study of WRCCEI. Thesis analysed the relationship between water resources , socio-economic and environmental quality, and can directe the diversion planning of estuarine island areas.