Study On The Carrying Capacity Of Water Resources In ChongMing Island Based On System Dynamics

Water resources is important for human's survival and development and Water resources is important natural resources in the human's survival and development,one of the important factors affecting the ecological environment. But with population's sharp increase and economy's prompt development,the problems of water resources become the most prominent problems in every country.the water scarcity has become a bottleneck which restricts our county's sustainable economy. How to properly handle the relations between water resources and population as well as between environment and sustainable economic development has become a focus of social concern and a hot topic of scientific research. Water resources carrying capacity reflects the supporting ability of the water resources system for sustainable society development, it is a foundational topic in water resources security strategic study and it is also an important issue in the field of water resources research and sustainable development. by researching the water resources carrying capacity, we may understand the supporting function of the water resources system for social development, harmonize developmental relationships among the population, the resources and the entironment for giving basic theory of water resources exploitation.firstly, thesis reviewed the study history of WRCC from concept,content,characters,theorys and research methods and so on.secondly,based on the characteristic of Chongming island,we establish Chongming Island water resource model of system dynamics combined with basic theories, analyses the basic construct of system dynamics model, we take three Socio-economic development projects (Development targets and speed) and different water diversion (local surface water quantity,5% largest water diversion,20% largest water diversion,30% largest water diversion,50% largest water diversion,70% largest water diversion) as different screens. By dynamic simulation,receiving the status of supplying and demanding of water resources and water quality in Chingming Island.For the sake of sustainable development of economy and society,Chongming island people must think most of water saving, regulate industrial and water used framework. In the long run, only sewage reuse and water indraught from Changjiang River would be strengthened, population,economy,resources and environment would go award harmoniously.