Simulation And Prediction Of Regional Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based On System Dynamics-two Dimension Mix Model

In recent years,with the economic and social development,the shortage of water resource has become increasingly serious and an important factor restricting regional development.The water resource carrying capacity(WRCC)is not only an important evaluation index of regional water resources safety,but also an important index to measure of the coordination between regional water resource and the development of society and economy.Therefore,it is important to research on WRCC to solve the problem of shortage of regional water resources and improve the water resource security system.Based on this,this article analyzes the domestic and abroad research results firstly,then summarizes the concepts and methods of WRCC and makes the water resource carrying population scale as the index to evaluate the regional WRCC.By using the method of system dynamics to simulate regional economy,society,water resources and ecological environment system,the model of regional WRCC is constructed from the quantity and quality of water.Through making Changchun city as an example and simulating the system of regional WRCC of the conventional development and the other three schemes,this article analyzes the future WRCC trend of Changchun city and put forward some corresponding suggestions.The results show that: in the conventional scheme,comparing the quantity water resource carrying capacity and quality of water water resources carrying capacity,the future water resource shortage is a main factor restricting the economic and social development of Changchun.In 2014-2030,the trend is a slow decline in water resource carrying capacity of Changchun and decreases from 7.1459 million in 2014 to 6.6591 million in 2030.During this time,the city water resource are insufficient to support the regional economic and social development and the carrying capacity of water resource quantity is overloaded.According to the overload rate of population size(predicted population size/ water resources carrying population size),it is a mild overload that the overload rate of population size is 1.06 in 2014 and the overload population is 0.3996 million.Without an increase in water resource condition,the overloaded situation of water resource in Changchun has been gradually improved along with economic development and population growth.The overload rate of population size reaches 1.16 to 2030 and the overload population is 1.0548 million.Based on analysis of the results of three kinds of schemes simulation,all of the schemes can improve the future water resources carrying capacity and improve the overloaded situation of water resource in Changchun.Among them,water transfer can effectively alleviate the water shortage problem in Changchun,but with the economic and social development water resource,the water resource carrying capacity will gradually weaken.The scheme to improve the use efficiency of water resource can improve the water resources carrying capacity and change the overloaded situation of water resource,but it spends a longer time.Considering the increase of water resource supply and the raise of industrial and agricultural water use efficiency can greatly improve the carrying capacity of water resource in Changchun and the trend is increasing year by year.At the same time,it can completely change the overloaded situation of regional water resource in a short term,continue to reduce the overload rate of population size and persistently improve the water resource carrying capacity of Changchun.It is necessary to comprehensively considerate the supply and demand of water resource to carry out scientific and rational development and utilization of water resource which can effectively improve the water resource carrying capacity in Changchun and meet the requirement of sustainable development.