Model Study Of Trip Production And Distribution Forecast For New Urban Districts

Traffic demand forecast is the base and premise of urban transportation planning, so whether traffic demand forecast is scientific and practical will directly affect the synthetical efficiency of the transportation planning scheme. Traditional traffic forecast method bases on large numbers of investigation data, so its precision is high. However, when new cities or new planning urban districts (called new urban districts for short) are forecasted, traditional traffic forecast meets difficulty. Because the base of the traditional traffic forecast is traffic investigation, but for the new urban districts which have not been built, the traffic investigation can not be carried out. As a result, it is very urgent and important to establish a traffic forecast model which would fit for the features of new urban districts.This paper researches on new urban districts. On the basis of analyzing the existing research outcomes, comparing and analyzing the differences between new urban districts and old urban districts in traffic forecast, considering the features of traffic forecast for new urban districts, it starts form the location land use information of traffic zones, and establishes traffic production and distribution forecast models which are fit for new urban districts.First, this paper analyzes the relation between traffic zones'location and traffic development. Location potential energy is presented and the location land use information quantification model is established. Traffic accessibility and the socioeconomic variables of traffic zones are important factors of the location potential energy. On this basis, generation location influence coefficient and attraction location influence coefficient are established. And then, they are used in analyzing.The traditional traffic forecast models do not consider the features of the new urban districts. On the basis of location land use information quantification, with regard of population and land use, a trip production model is developed. And then, a traffic distribution model based on gravity model and location land use information quantification is established. An analysis of trip production...