Based On The Location Potential Energy Of Trip Production And Distribution Forecasting Under The Background Of Urban Space Expansion

The city is a big and complex system, there exist a lot ofgrowth factors, unlimited number of variables and catalyst makethe body of city is always in a process of change. The 《AthensCharter》 definition of city four basic functions is "traffic,work, life and rest", the land is its carrier and the trafficis link of other functions, so the traffic demand is accompaniedby the produce of the city. The urban space expansion as a normaland inevitable process will affect every aspect of life,especially to the traffic demand of the city.This paper firstly expounds the theory of the urban spaceexpansion and the present situation of urban space expansion,results that the urban space has a development trend tobalancing, intensive and regional mass. Secondly, the paperanalyzed the change characteristics of the urban traffic demandespecially to the travel times, travel distance, and transportmodes from four aspects of the urban space expansion. On thisbasis introduce the location potential energy as an effect factors to traffic demand, and divides it to produce and attractlocation influence coefficient. And then by analyzing the majorinfluential factors of location potential energy draw thecorresponding quantitative method. Thirdly, according to theproduce and attract behavior composition of the traffic zonewe can build traffic generation and distribution forecastingmodels respectively. Finally, the paper takes Xining as anexample to prove the application of the proposed model,expecting to offer another thought for urban traffic demandforecast.