A Study On Distribution Forecasting Of Large Capacity Airport Rail To Landside Traffic

Airport landside traffic will be inevitably pressed with the enlarging of the civil aviation business and the increasing of the number of the passengers. In the long run, the problem of airport landside will be one of the main factors restricting the development of civil aviation traffic. However, the distributing rate of rail differs to a large extent as a large capacity public service facility. As a result, it is necessary to master the function of rail to airport landside traffic so as to forecasting the distributing rate and passenger flow volume accurately.This dissertation analyzes the forecasting effect of large capacity airport rail to landside traffic distribution on the basis of Beijing Capital International Airport. Firstly, this dissertation analyzes the characteristics of airport landside traffic comprehensively with consideration of specialty of large capacity airport. Secondly, we analyzed fixed factors and design factors based on the study of all rail links, and confirmed the importance of influential factors. Thirdly, we used GM(1,2)forecast the landside traffic volume of Beijing Capital International Airport. Moreover, we applied queuing theory to analyze the distribution of airport rail to bus and taxi and gained the respective distributing rate and volume. Lastly, By establishing a Logit model, we applied index weight determined by AHP to obtain the utilities. Furthermore, we forecast the distributing rates of different modals when the traffic rail is introduced. We forecast objectively the distributing rate of airport rail and analyze the active effect of the whole landside traffic based on the real situation of Beijing Capital International Airport. In a word, we proved that airport rail is an effective way of solving the airport landside traffic problem.