Prediction Of Passenger Flows On Shanghai-Nanjing Railway

This thesis is accord to develop the level with the society economy and the transportation present condition. The current through the years data and related research result be used. Proceed the estimate to the future transportation in hallway in transportation in Nanking to Shanghai. Main with the present condition OD investigates for foundation, investigate with the transportation proceeding OD anti push. Have to appear the form guest flow the space characteristic. Then predict the future a need for flowing. Then adopt the certain model out the line to the space to assign the related network. Current usage most extensive of is four stages model method. That method can than reflect clearly the land make use of, the influence that transportation network variety etc. factor bring. The estimate result is more accurate. Reflect four stages model that this kind of predict mode, in theories with practice apply all more mature.First, the trend outset from the social economy development.Proceed the estimate to the important index sign in GDP, population etc. .Then measures to the transportation to proceed the estimate in predict year in characteristic. Attain with the period total measure the purpose of the control. Here the foundation is last, according to use a scope with use a kind. Proceed the demarcation to the small area in transportation. Analysis each small area uses a kind and transportation node scales. Estimate with reckon each small zone out the line to require with.Get the occurrence, attraction deal of each small area. Will predict finally a network for measuring at programing year go forward a line of small zones out the line to distribute, allotment estimate. To the estimate result proceed rationality analysis.