Research On The Passenger Flow Forecast Of Guangzhou-Zhuhai Intercity Rapid Rail Transit

The city cluster fast rail transit is a significant public infrastructure in the process of urban cluster's planning, it will have profound influence to the urban cluster's overall situation and development pattern, and its construction will be a systems engineering with broad affected area and strong comprehension. At the same time, the passenger flow forecast is the foundation of rail transit investment decision-making, only when there has enough passenger transport demand, the rail transit investment construction maybe is reasonable. Passenger flow forecast is a key indicator to weigh the basic project economic cost and economic benefit after a project puts into service. At present, four stages predict method is the universal theory when forecasting transport demand, World Bank, Asian Bank are all commonly use this method to determine transport demand, and also use it to appraise project's feasibility and technical standard. Our nation's first-class highway and the municipal transportation projects have all used four stages predict method to forecast transport demand; majorities of railroad project also use this method. This article is precisely taking the passenger flow forecast of Guangzhou-Zhuhai rapid rail transit as the research topic, using four stages predict method to forecast the rail transit's passenger flow volume.The paper has analyzed the present situation and achievement of domestic and overseas rail transit passenger flow forecast, the society and economical development present situation as well as local transportation development present situation and existent problem along the route area between Guangzhou and Zhuhai. Overall evaluating these factors, the writer establishes a scientific, objective four stages forecast method system, and obtains some crucial quantitative indicators of the rail transit passenger flow forecast. The article uses four stages forecast method to forecast passenger flow, with comparing each forecast model and this project's actual situation, it selects regression-elasticity coefficients method model, dual-constrained gravity model, Logit model as well as shortest path model separately to carry on the forecast in traffic production, traffic distribution, mode-split and traffic assignment this four stages. The related parameter's confirmation uses mathematics estimate...