Analysis On Passenger Flow Forecast Of MianYang-ChenDu-EMei Intercity Passenger-Dedicated Line

The intercity passenger-dedicated line is a significant infrastructure in the process of urban cluster's planning, it will have profound influence to the urban cluster's overall situation and development pattern, and its construction will be a systems engineering . with broad affected area and strong comprehension. At the same time, the passenger volume forecast is the foundation of passenger-dedicated line investment decision-making, only when there has enough passenger transport demand, the passenger-dedicated line investment construction maybe is reasonable. Passenger volume forecast is a key indicator to weigh the basic project economic cost and economic benefit after a project puts into service. At present, four stages predict method is the universal theory when forecasting transport demand. Our nation's first-class highway and the municipal transportation projects have all used four stages predict method to forecast transport demand; majorities of railroad project also use this method. This article is precisely taking the passenger volume forecast of Mianyang—Chengdu—Emei intercity passenger-dedicated line as the research topic, using four stages predict method to forecast intercity passenger-dedicated line 's passenger volume.The paper has analyzed the present situation and achievement of domestic and overseas rail transit passenger volume forecast, the society and economical development present situation as well as local transportation development present situation and existent problem along the route area of Mianyang—Chengdu—Emei intercity passenger-dedicated line. Overall evaluating these factors, the writer establishes a scientific, objective four stages forecast method system, and obtains some crucial quantitative indicators of the rail transit passenger volume forecast. By investigating and surveying broadly, considering different cities and departments' planning, the article uses four stages forecast method to forecast passenger volume of Mianyang—Chengdu— Emei intercity passenger-dedicated line, analyses flow terms of generation, distribution, choice split and assignment. The related parameter's confirmation uses mathematics estimate method, or uses the parameter value of domestic and foreign similar projects. In the forecast result analysis part, the paper obtains the rail transit's entire date passenger flow volume, passenger turnover flow volume, each hour interval passenger flow volume, rush hour passenger flow volume, rush hour maximum volume as well as got-in and got-out passenger flow volume in each station such important quantitative indicators. So the conclusions could be references for the planning and construction of Mianyang—Chengdu—Emei intercity passenger-dedicated line.