Study On Urban Rail Transit Passenger Flow Forecast

With the continuous improvement of people's living standards,the residents diversified way of travel has developed rapidly.At the same time,traffic congestion and other issues are more and more serious.In recent years,the urban rail transit has been widespread concerned in the city's integrated transport system with the development of the major cities.Urban rail transit passenger flow forecast is the key link in the planning and design of rail transit.It provides the support of basic data and the decision for the planning and design of urban rail transit.The result of passenger flow forecast plays a key role in the construction and operation of rail transit.In this paper,the passenger flow forecast of urban rail transit is the research object.This paper analyzes the basic methods,forecasting models and forecasting results of passenger flow forecasting,and analyzes the theory with the actual case.This paper mainly includes the following contents:Firstly,this paper expounds the basic concept of urban rail transit and its production.Through the analysis of the development of rail transit in several typical cities at inland and abroad.It summarizes the construction of urban rail transit and the characteristics of its passenger flow,and the basic growth rules of urban rail transit passenger flow.On this basis,it analyzes the influencing factors of urban rail transit traffic from two aspects:background environment and system operation.Secondly,this paper analyzes the mode and basic methods of urban rail transit passenger flow forecast.Aiming the four-stage passenger flow forecasting method which is the most commonly used in China,this paper analyzes the applicability of the model method.On the based of the four-stage method,it summarizes the main factors influencing the passenger flow forecasting in the four-stage passenger flow forecasting process.Thirdly,this paper analyzes the uncertainty of the urban rail transit passenger flow forecast.It builds the index system of urban rail transit passenger flow forecast risk factors,and selects the risk factors of the rail transit passenger flow forecast.On this basis,this paper carries out the sensitivity analysis of urban rail transit passenger flow forecast to increase the utilization and improve the anti-risk ability of passenger flow forecast.Finally,this paper takes the Shenyang Metro Line 9 as a case to study the passenger flow forecast in the project feasibility stage,and analyzes the forecast results.It emphasizes the combination of urban rail transit passenger flow forecasting process and practice analysis,strengthens the analysis and evaluation of passenger flow forecasting results,and improves the credibility of passenger flow forecast data.