Fuzzy Reliability Study On Earth-rockfill Dam Slope Stability

With the development of rehabilitation of risky reservoirs in our country, as well as the flaw of single safety factor method are emerging more clearly day by day, it is extremely urgent and important for us to seek for a new and more reliable method. Therefore, the fuzzy reliability method was put forward and the fuzzy mathematics was referenced to analysis the dam-slope stability with full consideration of all factors that may influence the dam-slope stability.This text review the existing research results of reliability theory and fuzzy mathematics in slope engineering, and briefly introduce their basic theory. In earth-rockfill dam-slope calculation, regards every physical parameter as random variable, combination of random variables as a spatial vector, and consider the relevance of them and deal with it to make it more adapt to the condition of reliability theory. And this text adhibits the membership function of physical mechanic parameters of earth-rockfill dam slope, and make fuzzy treatment with it. Through bridge role of membership function, to make fuzzy problem into specific issues, then calculate the reliability with traditional reliability theory. Its result is an interval instead of a specific value.Compare with single safety factor method, fuzzy random reliability theory can systemic and quantitatively reflect fuzziness and randomness of earth-rockfill dam slope; Compare with traditional reliability theory it takes people's understanding ability into account, the result is more in line with people's understanding of things and thinking habits, and is more likely to be accepted.