Traffic Demand Modeling And Forecasting Of Road Network In Shiqiao Urban District Based On GIS

Along with the rapid development of social economy in our country, the faster proceeding of urbanization, the quicker increase of urban population and minimum flow quantity of motor vehicles, causing the traffic establishment becomes obvious lag with the traffic demand which results in more and more serious traffic problems in big city.In recent years, with the development of social economy, the improvement of living standards and the faster increasing of motor vehicles in Shiqiao urban district of Panyu district in Guangzhou city, along with the proceeding of "Southern Exploitation" of urban space and the holding of Guangzhou Asian Games in the year of 2010, all these factors results in growing pressure and more and more serious traffic problems in Shiqiao urban district. To ease the Current Situation of traffic jam, optimize the layout of main urban road network, improve road structure, enhance the capability of road, is the most desired problem to resolve.Traffic demand forecasting is the key problem in modern traffic planning, is the key in road network planning, is the premises and important principles. In this paper, road network traffic demand forecasting in Shiqiao urban district was taken as a case, introducing advanced information processing technology to optimize traffic road network model, using traffic planning software TransCAD which is in fashion nowadays to modeling for traffic demand forecasting. Traffic demand forecasting of road network in Shiqiao urban district was modeled and forecasted according to the actual circumstances applying "3 phase" traffic forecasting method. Main content is as follows: 1) Analysis on the current situation of social economy development in research area, including population, land use layout, social economy and minimum flow quantity of motor vehicles and so on.2) Analysis on the current situation of road network and related datum collected.3) Research on the principle, theories and models about traffic demand forecasting of urban road network4) Traffic volume survey and processing basic data for traffic demand forecasting based on GIS5) Research on social economy forecasting, including forecasting for population, GDP and minimum flow quantity of motor vehicles.6) Research on estimating origin-destination matrices in base year based on the current situation of link flow7) Research on modeling of road network for traffic demand forecasting through TransCAD based on Contrastive analysis of multi-models and according to population, GDP and minimum flow quantity of motor vehicles. Finally, trip generation, trip distribution and traffic flow assignment forecast were researched in forecasting years of 2008 and 2010...