Research On The Non-motorized Traffic Demand Forecasting Of The Urban Road

Harmonious and orderly urban road system should not only meet the needs of motorized travel,but also consider the walking,non-motor vehicle and other Non-motorized travel modes.Reasonable Non-motorized traffic demand forecasting is the premise and foundation for guaranteeing the match of urban Non-motorized traffic system supply and residents' Nonmotorized traffic demand,and also the significant basis for Non-motorized traffic planning and infrastructure investment.Therefore,this paper explores an appropriate method for Nonmotorized traffic demand forecasting and researches on the urban road Non-motorized traffic in terms of the characteristics of Non-motorized traffic.Initially,this paper analyzes research status of the Non-motorized traffic and the fourstage method for traffic demand forecasting.There are few scholars have studied Nonmotorized traffic demand forecasting and it is found that the four-stage method which is only applicable to motor vehicles,some steps are not suitable for forecasting the Non-motorized traffic demand.Then,the article concluded the main characteristics of various modes of travel in Non-motorized traffic,Studied the residents' distinction of Non-motorized travel combining with the specific data in some cities and had four angles which were share ratio,objective,temporal distribution,distance distribution of Non-motorized traffic.Based on the analysis of the existing traffic demand forecasting methods and models,combined with the characteristics of Non-motorized traffic,the defects of the traditional four-stage method in the stage of traffic generation forecasting and traffic distribution forecasting are analyzed.Based on the above analysis and the characteristics of Non-motorized traffic,this paper modified and improved the traditional four-stage demand forecasting method,which gives corresponding improvement measures of the traffic generation and distribution stage of the method.In the stage of Non-motorized traffic generation forecasting,the traffic zone divided into enough small parts,based on the original unit method of land use,the generation and prediction model of Non-motorized traffic is constructed considering the attraction of Nonmotorized traffic per unit area of land with different properties;In the stage of Non-motorized distribution forecasting,an improved opportunity model with refined access parameters to each cell is used to predict traffic distribution.Then,the model of mode split and traffic assignment is given.In the stage of Non-motorized traffic modes split,generalized costs are introduced for each travel mode,and a division prediction model of Non-motorized traffic modes is constructed based on generalized costs;In the stage of Non-motorized traffic assignment,the SUE model is used to establish the Non-motorized traffic assignment model,which combines the delay function of sections and intersections.Finally,the proposed models are applied to forecast the Non-motorized traffic demand of the old district in Shuangliu,Chengdu.Before each stage of case analysis,the proposed models are verified by the current data of the study area,which proves the validity and rationality of the model.After case study,the Non-motorized travel characteristics data for future year are given.These data can be used to guide regional Non-motorized traffic planning and Nonmotorized traffic infrastructure deployment,thus demonstrating the practicability of the model.