The Primary Study On The CCWR In Xiang River Valley

With the water resource Crisis intensifying increasingly, people think muchof the actuality,developing tendency,progress of exploitation & utilization andpotential scale of water resource. People want to know how large the scale ofsocial economy can water resource in reality support urgently. The research onCarrying Capacity of Water Resources (CCWR) is the response to the problemsof water resources which appear unceasingly with social developing process.Researching CCWR is an important part of the studies on resources sustainableutilization, the aim of it is to make the main bearing body—water resourcessystem and the beating object—human society economy systems to be even moreharmonious development.Based on the foundation of assimilating the research results, combined thesystemic programming in each district of Xiang River Valley, took 2005a asfundamental evaluative year, 2010a,2015a,2020a as scheming years, this paperanalyzed and forecasted the condition of CCWR in Xiang River Valley by usingMulti-Objective Programming method; analyzed the CCWR with multi-projectscontrastively by using Osculating Value method, and chose the best projects forCCWR of each district in the future, then analyzed the balance of watersupply-demand and the CCWR with the best projects. Finally, this papersummarized the main factors that infecting the CCWR in Xiang River Valley,these conclusion can be drawn:(1) As the foundations of economy and water resources are different, the bestprojects for CCWR will be dissimilar in each district. In all the 27 schemingyears, there will be 15 years,3years,9 years will choose Comprehensivedevelopment,Environmental protection,Economical growth as the best project,they will respectively take 55.6%,11.1%,33.3% in all the decision-making years.(2) The water resource in Xiang River Valley is very opulent, but in somelocal parts water will become shortage. In all the 27 scheming years in eachdistrict, 9 years will be short of water. Especially in the district of Changsha,Xiangtan, the tendency of water shortage will be obvious.(3) Generally, the CCWR in Xiang River Valley would have the progress of enhancing,reducing,enhancing again, then the strong temporal change appears;The dimensional change appears inhomogeneous. That also is: The CCWR wouldreduce from upriver to downriver. Except Changsha, Xiangtan, the others' CCWRare optimistical.(4) As far as Osculating Value concerned, take this principle—the Value isgreater, the CCWR is Weaker for the judgment: The compositor of CCWR ineach district of Xiang River Valley for different years is:2005a: Yongzhou＞Loudi＞Zhuzhou＞Chenzhou＞Shaoyang＞Hengyang＞Yueyang＞Changsha＞Xiangtan.2010a: Loudi＞Chenzhou＞Zhuzhou＞Yueyang＞Yongzhou＞Hengyang＞Shaoyang＞Xiangtan＞Changsha.2015a: Yongzhou＞Zhuzhou＞Hengyang＞Shaoyang＞Chenzhou＞Yueyang＞Loudi＞Xiangtan＞Changsha.2020a: Yongzhou＞Zhuzhou＞Hengyang＞Shaoyang＞Yueyang＞Chenzhou＞Loudi＞Xiangtan＞Changsha.(5) In multitudinous infecting factors of CCWR, the water resources itself isthe restraint factor; the infecting of economy development is the first; thefollowing is the infecting of population growth; the final one is the pressure onthe water resources and the ecosystem from above-mentioned.